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Analysis: Thermobaric Weapons Explainer
Earlier this week, I recorded an explainer about fuel-air explosives with my colleagues at lotuseaters.com. While the term ‘thermobaric weapons’ has been used for decades, it’s recently been ginned up by the media in order to excite people into a state of irrational fear. You can access the full clip here. In summary, thermobaric weapons…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day Ten
5th March, 2300 Reports of Russian helicopters and jets downed by MANPADs came in from all sectors of the conflict today, particularly around Kiev and Chernihiv to the north, and Mykolaiv and Odessa to the south. This is likely related to recent shipments of the Polish Piorun MANPAD surface to air missile system. The media…
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Analysis: Ukrainian Military Performance
Now ten days into the conflict, the Ukrainian military appears to be holding firm on all combat fronts. How have they achieved this? Expectations Much of the conversation surrounding the buildup to a possible invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Army dwelt on the assumption that Ukraine would capitulate rapidly. This pessimism was likely informed…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day Nine
4th March, 23:00 The combat fronts appeared mostly static on day nine, with the Russians consolidating control in some southern areas. Fighting raged around the north of Kiev for a second day, which conflicting reports regarding the status of Bucha and Hostomel, captured yesterday by Ukrainian forces. Protests continue across occupied territory, as well as…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day Eight
Following a relative lull in ground fighting yesterday, intense battles were fought around several major cities on day eight. The Ukrainian Army appears to have launched a partially-successful counterattack to the north of Kiev. 23:00 03/03 Kiev There appears to have been a Ukrainian counterattack against Russian forces holding Hostomel airport. Footage on the ground…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day Seven
While the fronts do not appear to have shifted significantly today, there have been several important developments. Infantry assaults on cities appear to have largely subsided today, with actions being fought primarily in the surrounding countryside instead of outlying city districts. Bombardment by aeroplanes, missiles, and artillery continues. Operations in the south front have continued…
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Analysis: Russian Military Performance
It has already been a full week since the invasion of Ukraine began. Let us recap the events on the ground, and conclude with analysis of the performance of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. (The Ukrainian military analysis will follow in tomorrow’s analysis). Progress of the Invasion Russia has made incursions into Ukraine along several…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day Six
08:00 01/03 As the morning opens, there are several important developments. The EU has announced it will rush 70 fighter jets to Ukraine, in a significant escalation of military aid. It is now confirmed that Bulgaria will send 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s, Poland will provide 28 MiG-29 units, and Slovakia supplies 12 MiG-29s. These…
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Analysis: Never Go Full Pravda
It has been a remarkable week. Within five days, a new craze has completely conquered the West, a sort of Beatlemania for battle. Coronavirus lies forgotten in the dusty recesses of distant memory. Climate change and LGBT rights have receded from the public discussion, much to the frustration of those who are particularly distressed by…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day Five
Despite speculation that the attack had stalled over the weekend, Russia continued to make gains on Day Five. 22:30 28/02 Kherson We learned that the city of Kherson on the south coast of Ukraine has apparently been surrounded by Russian troops. Presumably a crossing of the Dnieper has been effected to the north, near the…