Category: Analysis
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September Update: Ukraine’s Kherson Offensive
Following the fall of Severodonetsk in late June, it’s been relatively quiet on the Ukrainian front. Missile attacks and airstrikes have continued sporadically, with the occasional operation against a Russian refinery or Ukrainian transport hub. Action on the ground has however been limited to local engagements, with no major offensives on either side despite constant…
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Day 132: How Luhansk Fell to the Russians
There have been significant developments in East Ukraine over the past two weeks. Following the predictions of our last update, the Ukrainian salient in Severodonetsk has collapsed, resulting in the capture of the Luhansk region by Russian forces. The Russians have also withdrawn from Snake Island, while NATO commits to maintain a significantly increased readiness…
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Day 100-112: Why Reinforce the Donbas Salient?
Major developments surrounding the war in Ukraine, with Russia capitalising on positional advantages and massed firepower over the last two weeks since the breakthrough in Popasna. There is again little to celebrate from a Ukrainian point of view. In the second phase of the war, it is clear that no amount of heroism can negate…
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Analysis: Who Has the Upper Hand in Ukraine?
“War is a mere continuation of foreign policy by other means,” wrote the German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz. His theories of warfare have been studied across the military and political academies of the world, and provide a practical guide to understanding the phenomenon of war. In conventional warfare, war is waged by a trio…
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Conflict: Day 72-81
The conflict in Ukraine increasingly resembles two different wars, as the Ukraine-leaning and Russia-leaning sources continue to disagree over key events and interpretations. In this summary of the past 10 days, we diverge from the usual day-by-day reporting by providing general analysis on the important questions regarding what’s happened in the war over the past…
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Analysis: A Tale of Two Conflicts
I recently covered narratives surrounding the Ukraine conflict on a podcast with the Lotus Eaters, available at the link below: Regrettably, since my day job has been particularly busy in recent weeks, I’ve fallen behind somewhat on writing daily Ukraine coverage (though I am able to keep abreast of developments on the ground). I hope…
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Conflict: Day 65-71
This week has been particularly challenging in terms of reporting on the Ukraine conflict, for a number of reasons. Firstly, the divergence between pro-Western and pro-Russian narratives has been egregious in recent days, with sources presenting alternate realities that are difficult to disentangle from an outsider’s standpoint. In previous days, the footage emerging from civilians…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day 60 (Two Month Summary, Part I)
Now that two months have passed since the Russian invasion on Feburary 24th, 2022, let’s review the conflict so far. In this brief, we’ll cover the story leading up to the eve of the Russian invasion. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine began effectively in 2014, with the annexation of the Crimea and the establishment…
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Analysis: Whose Warcrime Is It, Anyway?
Throughout this conflict, there have been several events which leap out of the day-to-day violence of the war in Ukraine with curious clarity. All of them concern warcrimes committed against Ukrainian civilians by Russian troops. From the hospital and theatre bombings in Mariupol, to the school shellings in Kharkiv, every one appears to show a…
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Ukraine Opinions, Ranked
There are many narratives concerning the war in Ukraine, and most of them are terrible. In this short analysis, we’ll rank the various opinions in order of nuance, knowledge, and accuracy. Trash-Tier Opinions & Pravda Propaganda These ideas are a sure sign that someone’s either been spending too much time on Twitter, or relying on…