The war in Ukraine continues, with little visible progress on the ground as attrition of both sides’ fighting capacity is hard to determine. The Russians appear to have lost a large number of men and vehicles over the past weeks; a leaked Russian Ministry of Defence estimate places the casualty figures at 9,861 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine so far, with 16,153 injured. Perhaps more intriguing than these leaked numbers is the fact that they were published by a pro-Kremlin tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda.
Ukrainian losses have also been significant, but hidden in the ‘fog of war’ with few outlets seeking to ascertain the extent of Ukrainian casualties in both men and materiel. In a similar vein, there appears to be relatively little scrutiny of Ukraine’s conduct in the conflict so far, in contrast to the energies directed towards finding and publicising Russian war crimes. These should be borne in mind when it comes to assessing what is happening on the ground.
Russian troops appear to have consolidated along some of the approach routes to Kryvyi Rih, with shelling in Zelenodolsk and Shyrokovsky. Mariupol remains surrounded.
Kherson and Mykolaiv
While plenty of news and footage emerged from this region of the conflict, in the south of the country, this should not be taken to indicate that the severity of fighting has been any more significant here than in other regions of the front, such as Kiev, Kharkiv, and Mariupol.
After an attack on a Russian command post in the Kherson region, what appears to be a situation map was recovered, showing Russian dispositions and areas of occupation in the local area.
Russian soldiers appear to open fire on protesters in occupied Kherson. There have been plenty of peaceful demonstrations against Russian troops in occupied territories thus far, with little capacity for effective riot control shown on the part of the Russian Army. However, opening fire towards civilians in this manner has been unusual over the past weeks.
Following the Ukrainian airstrike several days ago, Kherson airbase appears to have been evacuated of aircraft.
Shelling continues around Mykolaiv. Also near Mykolaiv, footage shows the remnants of a Russian Army bridging attempt after it was attacked by Ukrainian forces.
A modern T-90A tank was destroyed by Ukrainian forces near Zaporizhzhia.
Satellite imagery shows more gatherings of Russian troops in Belarus, to the north of Kiev.
The Ukrainian Army claims to have cleared Moschun of Russian troops, shortly northwest of Kiev (next to Hostomel). A tentative perimeter between both forces appears to have been established along the Irpin river.
The bombardment of Kharkiv continues, with 84 shelling incidents recorded in 24 hours according to the regional administration. They further claim to have downed a Russian drone over the city, though the size of the drone is yet to be verified. In the nearby city of Chuhuiv, site of a Ukrainian airbase and firing ground, there has been continued fighting on the ground as well as the claimed downing of a Russian jet.
According to Ukrainian authorities, an armed sabotage group was been detained in Transcarpathia on the Ukrainian-Slovakian border. These images show rifles, explosives, ammunition, and other supplies.
According to regional administration in Rivny, in the west of Ukraine, 3 out of 4 Russian missile strikes in the region were repulsed by air defence. Whether this was the work Ukrainian air defence, or the NATO air defence systems parked in the nearby Polish border, remains to be seen. Meanwhile in Kiev, the wreckage of a spent Alfa anti-ship missile has been spotted. The Alfa also possesses an anti-ground capability, but its use in this role is curious.
The Moscow Stock Exchange reopens for bond trading after nearly a full month’s closure.
Russia has been unloading military equipment at the port of Berdyansk, near Mariupol, according to state media.