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September Update: Ukraine’s Kherson Offensive
Following the fall of Severodonetsk in late June, it’s been relatively quiet on the Ukrainian front. Missile attacks and airstrikes have continued sporadically, with the occasional operation against a Russian refinery or Ukrainian transport hub. Action on the ground has however been limited to local engagements, with no major offensives on either side despite constant…
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Day 132: How Luhansk Fell to the Russians
There have been significant developments in East Ukraine over the past two weeks. Following the predictions of our last update, the Ukrainian salient in Severodonetsk has collapsed, resulting in the capture of the Luhansk region by Russian forces. The Russians have also withdrawn from Snake Island, while NATO commits to maintain a significantly increased readiness…
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Day 100-112: Why Reinforce the Donbas Salient?
Major developments surrounding the war in Ukraine, with Russia capitalising on positional advantages and massed firepower over the last two weeks since the breakthrough in Popasna. There is again little to celebrate from a Ukrainian point of view. In the second phase of the war, it is clear that no amount of heroism can negate…
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Conflict: Day 89-99
Over the last ten days, the Russians have continued to make gradual progress in East Donbas following their partial breakthrough in Popasna, while reports indicate Ukraine is still reinforcing all areas of this pocket despite the danger of encirclement. The Russians have also made substantial progress in taking the city of Sievierodonetsk. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian…
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Analysis: Who Has the Upper Hand in Ukraine?
“War is a mere continuation of foreign policy by other means,” wrote the German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz. His theories of warfare have been studied across the military and political academies of the world, and provide a practical guide to understanding the phenomenon of war. In conventional warfare, war is waged by a trio…
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Conflict: Day 82-88
There have been may developments in Ukraine over the last week, with significant progress made by Russia in East Donbas. Let’s recap where we were this time last week, and work out which predictions and developments came true, and which didn’t. Last Week: Recap On Monday 16th May, there were two competing narratives around the…
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Conflict: Day 72-81
The conflict in Ukraine increasingly resembles two different wars, as the Ukraine-leaning and Russia-leaning sources continue to disagree over key events and interpretations. In this summary of the past 10 days, we diverge from the usual day-by-day reporting by providing general analysis on the important questions regarding what’s happened in the war over the past…
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Analysis: A Tale of Two Conflicts
I recently covered narratives surrounding the Ukraine conflict on a podcast with the Lotus Eaters, available at the link below: Regrettably, since my day job has been particularly busy in recent weeks, I’ve fallen behind somewhat on writing daily Ukraine coverage (though I am able to keep abreast of developments on the ground). I hope…
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Conflict: Day 65-71
This week has been particularly challenging in terms of reporting on the Ukraine conflict, for a number of reasons. Firstly, the divergence between pro-Western and pro-Russian narratives has been egregious in recent days, with sources presenting alternate realities that are difficult to disentangle from an outsider’s standpoint. In previous days, the footage emerging from civilians…
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Ukraine Conflict: Day 64
Rumours of a Transnistrian mobilisation circulate on April 28th, day 64, while the Russian offensive continues in Zaporizhzhia and East Donbas. We report on sabotage across Russia and discuss attitudes towards Russia’s military capabilities over the duration of the conflict so far. Transnistria Mobilises — Or Does It? Ukrainian media claims that Transnistria has ordered…